Mostly Uninformed 2018 Oscar Picks

Back in the day, I worked at a little mom-and-pop video store. It was pretty cool. We rented VHS and Beta. They had a pretty awesome backlist of titles, too many to work through. Also a lot of soft porn. The best was working on Saturday mornings. The boss didn’t come in til late in the day, and no one came in the story, or if they did, it was just to drop off and run back out. So you had all morning and an extensive library at your fingertips. I saw Eraserhead on one of those Saturdays, and after I transferred to closing their other branch, I was able to watch pretty much watch the entire run of Mystery Science Theatre 3000. Not to mention the screeners we’d get in advance of the tapes hitting the shelves. Those were good times. A friend and I had a pool going every year about which of us could predict the most Oscar wins. I invariably lost every year, because I tend to vote with my heart and not like an Oscar voter (and who knows what they vote with). Granted, I haven’t seen a lot of these, but that’s never stopped me from having an opinion on something. So, fueled only with what I can find on Wikipedia and YouTube, here are my Oscar picks for 2018.

BEST PICTURE - Call Me By Your Name, Darkest Hour, Dunkirk, Get Out, Lady Bird, Phantom Thread, The Post, The Shape of Water, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri (henceforth known as 3 Billboards)

I’ve seen four of these films. My heart is torn between Dunkirk and Get Out. I originally thought Dunkirk, but I think it might be Get Out. It was pretty powerful.

BEST DIRECTOR - Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk), Jordan Peele (Get Out), Greta Girwig (Lady Bird), Paul Thomas Anderson (Phantom Thread), Guillermo del Toro (The Shape of Water)

This is the history-making category, with both the first African American director and the first female director being nominated, so I’d like either of those to win, just because I like seeing history being made. So many people are upset about Patty Jenkins getting snubbed, but superhero movies are never nominated for best picture and best director. They aren’t taken seriously. I think it’s going to be Nolan. I really loved Dunkirk & coordinating filming on land, sea, and air has to be extraordinarily difficult, and I think they’ll recognize that.

BEST ACTRESS - Sally Hawkins (The Shape of Water), Frances McDormand (3 Billboards), Margot Robbie (I, Tonya), Saoirse Ronan (Lady Bird), Meryl Streep (The Post)

She was nominated for Florence Foster Jenkins. The Post looks like it’s actually a worthy role, so naturally she’ll win. Which disappoints me a little because, as wonderful as she is, it’s sad that right now all an actress can hope for is being an also-ran to Meryl Streep. I refuse to even acknowledge the film I, Tonya because I’m morally opposed to giving Tonya Harding any more notoriety. Let her fifteen minutes end already.

BEST ACTOR - Timothee Chalamet (Call Me By Your Name), Daniel Day-Lewis (Phantom Thread), Daniel Kaluuya (Get Out), Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour), Denzel Washington (Roman J Israel Esq.)

If it were totally up to me, I would give it to Daniel Kaluuya. His performance in Get Out was riveting. But it’s not at all up to me. So Daniel Day-Lewis will win it because he’s retiring and they’ll never be able to give him another one, until his lifetime achievement Oscar, which will probably be next year.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS - Mary J Blige (Mudbound), Allison Janney (I, Tonya), Lesley Manville (Phantom Thread), Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird), Octavia Spencer (The Shape of Water)

Personally I’d give it to Octavia Spencer because I love her and that’s the only movie I’ve seen. But, Laurie Metcalf is supposed to be really good in Lady Bird. I’m going to throw caution to the wind & say Metcalf.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR - Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project), Woody Harrelson (3 Billboards), Richard Jenkins (The Shape of Water), Christopher Plummer (All the Money In the World), Sam Rockwell (3 Billboards)

Again, I’d love to see Richard Jenkins win because I really loved The Shape of Water, but I think Christopher Plummer is going to win. I hope he will. What he went through for that role is crazy, and what kind of message would that be to Kevin Spacey?

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY - The Big Sick, Get Out, Lady Bird, The Shape of Water, 3 Billboards.

If I’m wrong about best picture, and odds are I am, I think Get Out will take this one. I think it could be either that or Shape of Water.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY - Call Me By Your Name, The Disater Artist, Logan, Molly’s Game, Mudbound

Ok, it won’t be Logan, because it’s a superhero movie, and that’s the only film I’ve seen in this category, so I’m flailing here. The Disaster Artist seems too meta to even warrant this. Why award a film based on the worst film of all time? Molly’s Game is by Sorkin, so great screenwriter, but it’s about a chick who runs illegal gambling for movie stars & involves the Russian mob. I don’t deny that it sounds like a worthy contender, but I am not sure about getting the award. I’ve heard wonderful things about Call Me By Your Name, so for absolutely no reason but that, I’m picking it.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM - A Fantastic Woman (Chile), In the Fade (Germany), The Insult (Lebanon), Loveless (Russia), The Wound (South Africa)

I’ve only read some plot summaries on these. Based on my minuscule knowledge I’m going to pick The Wound.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE - Boss Baby, The Breadwinner, Coco, Ferdinand, Loving Vincent

Boss Baby? Seriously? There were 16 major animated feature released last year, and Boss Baby is in the top 5? And those were just the American films that I recognized. What about The Star? LEGO Ninjago? Cars 3, Despicable Me? He’ll even The Emoji Movie? Not that it matters because it’s a dead cert that Coco will win, but MPA you do us a disservice with fricking Boss Baby.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE - Abacus: Small Enough To Jail, Faces Places, Icarus, Last Men in Aleppo, Strong Island

Most of these sound really interesting. The banking scandal, sports doping, volunteers helping people in Syria, and the killing of a young black man. They could all be winners. I think I might go with Last Men in Aleppo, though.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY - Blade Runner 2049, Darkest Hour, Dunkirk, Mudbound, The Shape of Water

I’ve said it from the trailers: Dunkirk. I’m not giving up on my gut on this one, although The Shape of Water was beautifully shot. I think it’ll get it’s visual award later.

BEST FILM EDITING - Baby Driver, Dunkirk, I Tonya, The Shape of Water, 3 Billboards

When I think about putting all the aerial footage in and the coinciding timelines, I really think Dunkirk should win this too.

BEST SOUND MIXING - Baby Driver, Blade Runner 2049, Dunkirk, The Shape of Water, Star Wars: The Last Jedi

This is where Blade Runner or Star Wars have a chance. It's got to be difficult mixing dialogue with sound effects & what-not. If I remember correctly, Blade Runner seemed more of a quieter film than Star Wars. That should mean that more mixing went into Star Wars than Blade Runner, right? Ah, heck, I'll go Blade Runner anyway. What do I know?

BEST SOUND EDITING - Baby Driver, Blade Runner 2049, Dunkirk, The Shape of Water, Star Wars: The Last Jedi

I'll pick Star Wars for this one because this probably has more sound effects to deal with than all the others combined.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS - Blade Runner 2049, Guardians of the Galaxy 2, Kong: Skull Island, Star Wars: The Last Jedi, War For the Planet of the Apes

I think Blade Runner has this one for that holo-melding effect. It was pretty damn cool.

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING - Darkest Hour, Victoria & Abdul, Wonder

It should probably be between Darkest Hour and Wonder. I think Wonder will get it because people like kids.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN - Beauty & the Beast, Darkest Hour, Phantom Thread, The Shape of Water, Victoria & Abdul

How do you win against a movie that is literally about designing clothing? Phantom Thread I think will take it.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN - Beauty & the Beast, Blade Runner 2049, Darkest Hour, Dunkirk, The Shape of Water

I like The Shape of Water for this one, not just for the period style, but for the use of the  color palette.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE - Dunkirk, Phantom Thread, The Shape of Water, Star Wars: The Last Jedi, 3 Billboards

I'm not a big fan of scores usually, so one thing I liked about Dunkirk was it's minimalist score, although it was pretty good at evoking the emotion of a scene. Then there's John Williams who always wins. But honestly the score that I would most want to listen to is 3 Billboards, so I'm picking it to win.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG - "Mighty River" from Mudbound, "The Mystery of Love" from Call Me By Your Name, "Remember Me" from Coco, "Stand Up For Something" from Marshall, "This is Me" from The Greatest Showman

C'mon. That song from Coco is heart-wrenching.

BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT - DeKalb Elementary, The Eleven O'Clock, My Nephew Emmett, The Silent Child, Watu Wote/All of Us

These last few I'm just going off trailers I could find online.

The Eleven O'Clock looks pretty good, but I think DeKalb Elementary may take it because of the topic of gun violence in schools. The Silent Child looks beautiful though.

BEST ANIMATED SHORT - Dear Basketball, Garden Party, Lou, Negative Space, Revolting Rhymes

Dear Basketball is by Kobe Bryant, which is pretty cool.  Lou is about bullying, which is topical. Revolting Rhymes, a retelling of fairy stories by Roald Dahl, looks really good too. But Garden Party looks like it's live action and is incredibly detailed, so I'm going with it.

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT - Edith+Eddie, Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405, Heroin(e), Knife Skills, Traffic Stop

The two most relevant shorts in my opinion are Heroin(e) and Traffic Stop. I'm really torn between these two. I think I'll go with Traffic Stop.

So those are my choices, for today at least. I've already changed my mind about a few, so by the time Oscar Sunday actually comes around I may change them again. I'll make some kind of notation if I do.